Saturday, December 24, 2016

InvestorsGuru.com 9 Filtered Mid-Day Market Movers Recap

Mid-Day Market Movers focus on above average volume, price action, breakout chart trends and news - posted throughout the day live at the top of InvestorsGuru.com, on our Hot Sheet and @InvestorsGuru Twitter feed. Below recaps last week's movers, all prices when posted, week high price Wk-H:, with a brief company description and recent news headlines. Submit any ticker symbol to our Detailed Quote Portal (top-left of all pages) for quotes, java charts, research and news, where you can also login with any major social account to post updates, comments, and share your own best ideas about any stock.

TSX Venture (quote V. and ticker symbol)
(TSXV:FLY)(OTCBB:FLYLF) FLYHT Aerospace Solutions Ltd. (2013: $0.255 $0.38 $0.425)(2014: $0.52 $0.66) $0.23 Wk-H: $0.245
- real-time aircraft intelligence and cockpit communications, joins select group of Cdn. co.'s with CAAC Part-145 approval; China contracts
(TSXV:RTI) Radient Technologies Inc. $0.55 Wk-H: $0.62
- extracts natural compounds from a range of biological materials, $5M pp at $0.105; signs MOU on JV with (TSXV:ACB)(OTCBB:ACBFF) Aurora Cannabis

TSX (quote T. and ticker symbol)
(TSX:BBD.B)(OTCBB:BDRBF) Bombardier Inc. Class B Apr.14 $1.48 $1.98 $2.08 Wk-H: $2.20
- world's largest maker of both planes and trains, delivers first CRJ200 Special Freighter aircraft; Island Air selects Q400; 2017 guidance
(TSX:CQE)(OTCBB:CEQXF) Cequence Energy Ltd. Jun.29 $0.30 $0.345 Wk-H: $0.36
- focused on natural gas and crude oil in western Canada, Nov. 10 financial and operating results; closes $10M of $0.29 flow-through shares

NYSE MKT AMEX
(AMEX:GST) Gastar Exploration Inc. (2013-2014 10 posts: $1.59 to $8.28) Oct.20 $1.34 $1.66 Wk-H: $1.80
- focused on U.S. O&G shale plays, presented at energy conference; Nov. 21 initial closing of non-core Oklahoma acreage sale; Q3 results
(AMEX:INUV) Inuvo Inc. (2013: $1.05 $1.43 $1.80)(2014: $1.26)(2015: $1.83 $2.34 $2.88 $2.96) $1.75 Wk-H: $2.31
- ad tech and digital publishing, new VP sales to lead expansion of SearchLinks and partner network; stock repurchases; top 10 cyber Monday
(AMEX:STRP) Straight Path Communications Inc. Class B Oct.11 $30.52 $35.23 Wk-H: $37.84
- developing next generation wireless technology with licenses and deep coverage across the entire U.S., reports Q1 F-2017

NASDAQ
(NASDAQ:ANY) Sphere 3D Corp. $0.28 Wk-H: $0.44
- subsidiary Tandberg Data's new 4TB RDX cartridges ideal for hybrid cloud and data-intensive applications; gets 2nd unsolicited proposal

NYSE
(NYSE:SCS) Steelcase Inc. $17.70 Wk-H: $18.10
- 100+ years of architecture, furniture & technology products/services, Q3 Americas +3.5%, $786.5M revenue, $41.2M net income, $0.34 EPS

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Saturday, December 17, 2016

InvestorsGuru.com 10 Filtered Mid-Day Market Movers Recap

Mid-Day Market Movers focus on above average volume, price action, breakout chart trends and news - posted throughout the day live at the top of InvestorsGuru.com, on our Hot Sheet and @InvestorsGuru Twitter feed. Below recaps last week's movers, all prices when posted, week high price Wk-H:, with a brief company description and recent news headlines. Submit any ticker symbol to our Detailed Quote Portal (top-left of all pages) for quotes, java charts, research and news, where you can also login with any major social account to post updates, comments, and share your own best ideas about any stock.

TSX Venture (quote V. and ticker symbol)
(TSXV:MGW)(OTCBB:MPEFF) Maple Leaf Green World Inc. (2014: $0.085) Sep.29 $0.43 $0.46 Wk-H: $0.55
- focused on medical marijuana, harvest results for California MJ project; update on Las Vegas permit; $2M convertible debenture financing

TSX (quote T. and ticker symbol)
(TSX:GPS)(OTCBB:BSMZF) BSM Technologies Inc. (2013: $1.42 $1.86 $2.18 $2.80 $3.18) $1.35 Wk-H: $1.47
- offers remote monitoring, fleet mgmt./diagnostics and automated vehicle security, F-2016 $59M revenue +92%, adj. EBITDA $8.4M +223%
(TSX:NML)(OTCBB:NWLNF) New Millennium Iron Corp. Oct.25 $0.105 $0.185 Wk-H: $0.26
- developing iron ore in the Labrador Trough and Menihek Quebec, Q3 working capital $15.6M; closes transaction re: Quebec pay & Tata steel
(TSX:ATH)(OTCBB:ATHOF) Athabasca Oil Corp. $1.77 Wk-H: $1.88
- focused on Alberta's Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, transformative buy of high quality thermal oil assets from (NYSE:STO) Statoil ASA

OTCBB
(OTCBB:ASPU) Aspen Group Inc. Oct.18 $0.24 $0.31 Wk-H: $0.37
- online post-secondary education, 811 new students drive record gross profits, net income & EBITDA, Q2 revenue +81%, positive net income

NYSE MKT AMEX
(AMEX:UEC) Uranium Energy Corp. (2012-2015: $2.49 $2.33 $1.78 $1.69 $2.84) $1.00 Wk-H: $1.18
- uranium turning?, mid-west USA U3O8 miner, receives final mine permit for its Burke Hollow ISR project in South Texas; Q1 F-2017 filed
(AMEX:PTN) Palatin Technologies Inc. (2015: $0.92) $0.54 Wk-H: $0.58
- biopharm developing targeted, receptor-specific peptide therapeutics, closes $16.5M financing at $0.65 per unit

NASDAQ
(NASDAQ:AMD) Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (2013-2014 6-posts: $3.18 to $4.44) Aug.8 $6.70 $7.65 $7.41 $10.86 Wk-H: $11.23
- semiconductor company with groundbreaking APUs powering many computing devices, new horizon with Ryzen "Zen" core processors
(NASDAQ:SIRI) Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (27 posts since $0.73 in 2010) $4.52 Wk-H: $4.59
- world's largest radio broadcaster by revenue, 31M subscribers, with (NYSE:T) AT&T to provide 4G LTE connectivity on select FCA US vehicles

NYSE
(NYSE:PIR) Pier 1 Imports Inc. $8.77 Wk-H: $9.14
- bounce/turn?, original global importer home decor/furniture, Q3 e-comm. sales $97.4M +28%, 20% of net sales, 41.3% gr. profit, $0.17 EPS

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Saturday, December 10, 2016

InvestorsGuru.com 8 Filtered Mid-Day Market Movers Recap

Mid-Day Market Movers focus on above average volume, price action, breakout chart trends and news - posted throughout the day live at the top of InvestorsGuru.com, on our Hot Sheet and @InvestorsGuru Twitter feed. Below recaps last week's movers, all prices when posted, week high price Wk-H:, with a brief company description and recent news headlines. Submit any ticker symbol to our Detailed Quote Portal (top-left of all pages) for quotes, java charts, research and news, where you can also login with any major social account to post updates, comments, and share your own best ideas about any stock.

TSX Venture (quote V. and ticker symbol)
(TSXV:APH)(OTCBB:APHQF) Aphria Inc. Sep.14 $3.03 $3.70 $5.13 Wk-H: $5.50
- of Canada's leading licensed medical cannabis producers, invests $1M in Tetra Bio-Pharma PhytoPain clinical trials; closes $40M at $4/share
(TSXV:PHO)(OTCBB:POCEF) Photon Control Inc. (2013: $0.24)(2014: $0.29) Aug.27 $0.73 $0.93 Wk-H: $0.96
- maker of optical sensors to measure temperature, pressure, position and flow, Nov. 29 reported Q3 2016 Financial Results

TSX (quote T. and ticker symbol)
(TSX:CGC)(OTCBB:TWMJF) Canopy Growth Corp. (2014: $3.59) Oct.18 $6.40 $10.38 Wk-H: $11.25
- a world-leading diversified cannabis co., C$60M bought deal of 5.7M shares at $10.60; to buy (TSXV:MT)(OTCBB:MQTRF) Mettrum for shares
(TSX:PMN) ProMIS Neurosciences Inc. $0.165 Wk-H: $0.20
- treatments for neurodegenerative diseases, novel Alzheimer's therapeutic candidates block neurotoxicity of prion-like forms of Amyloid beta

NYSE MKT AMEX
(AMEX:PIP) PharmAthene Inc. (2013: $1.97 $2.03 $2.36)(2014: $2.34) $3.28 Wk-H: $3.30
- developing biodefense medical countermeasures, $2.91/share special cash dividend; receives final payment of $83.9M, total award $217M
(AMEX:SKY) Skyline Corp. $15.41 Wk-H: $17.35
- since 1951 offers the highest quality homes and park models, Oct. 13 Q1 net sales $61M +26%, net income of $0.09/share vs. $0.10 loss

NASDAQ
(NASDAQ:EMKR) EMCORE Corp. (2014: $5.40) $8.05 Wk-H: $8.94
- makes InP optical chips, components and systems for broadband and specialty fiber optics market, Q4 and year-end financial results

NYSE
(NYSE:AKS) AK Steel Holding Corp. (2013: $4.37 $5.07)(2014: $7.05) Jun.8 $5.43 $10.36 Wk-H: $11.39
- flat-rolled carbon, stainless, electrical steels, ups base prices for carbon and stainless; Oct 26 65M shares at $4.90; Q3 net income $50.9M

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Saturday, December 3, 2016

InvestorsGuru.com 8 Filtered Mid-Day Market Movers Recap

Mid-Day Market Movers focus on above average volume, price action, breakout chart trends and news - posted throughout the day live at the top of InvestorsGuru.com, on our Hot Sheet and @InvestorsGuru Twitter feed. Below recaps last week's movers, all prices when posted, week high price Wk-H:, with a brief company description and recent news headlines. Submit any ticker symbol to our Detailed Quote Portal (top-left of all pages) for quotes, java charts, research and news, where you can also login with any major social account to post updates, comments, and share your own best ideas about any stock.

TSX Venture (quote V. and ticker symbol)
(TSXV:CNX)(OTCBB:CLLXF) Callinex Mines Inc. Oct.18 $0.49 $0.63 Wk-H: $0.67
- developing zinc and copper rich mines in prolific Canadian VMS areas, adds second drill rig to step-out campaign at Pine Bay; closes $5M pp

TSX (quote T. and ticker symbol)
(TSX:ADV)(OTCBB:AXXDF) Alderon Iron Ore Corp. Jul.12 $0.10 $0.36 $0.33 Wk-H: $0.39
- developing its Labrador Kami project with China's Hesteel, engages BBA to prepare PEA on new mine concept with idled Wabush Scully Mine

NYSE MKT AMEX
(AMEX:NAK)(TSX:NDM) Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. May16 $0.34 $0.47 $0.76 $1.03 $0.57 $0.66 $1.33 Wk-H: $1.50
- Alaska Pebble resource: world's largest undeveloped copper AND gold deposits, Oct. 28 EPA agrees to mediate FACA litigation
(AMEX:TGD)(TSX:TMM) Timmins Gold Corp. (2015: $0.30 $0.20) Feb.3 $0.13 $0.18 $0.46 $0.55 $0.42 $0.46 $0.33 Wk-H: $0.355
- operating and developing mines in Mexico, closes C$20M bought deal of C$0.55 units; updates technical reports; Q3 $9.8M cash flow
(AMEX:BPMX) BioPharmX Corp. $0.37 Wk-H: $0.44
- specialty pharma developing dermatology products, closes $12.5M $0.35 units, studies suggest Violet Iodine inhibits breast cancer growth

NASDAQ
(NASDAQ:NVCN)(TSX:NVC) Neovasc Inc. $0.86 Wk-H: $0.98
- specialty medical cardiovascular device maker, (NYSE:BSX) Boston Scientific to acquire tech & facility for US$68M & invest $7M for 15% equity

NYSE
(NYSE:CHK) Chesapeake Energy Corp. Feb.24 $2.66 $5.49 $6.85 $7.16 Wk-H: $7.35
- second-largest U.S. natural gas producer, Nov. 3 reported 2016 Q3 financial and operational results
(NYSE:AG)(TSX:FR) First Majestic Silver Corp. $9.77 Wk-H: $9.86
- primary silver producer growing its mines in Mexico, Nov. 9 Q3 record production on 27% lower AISC costs, revenue +78%, EPS +556%

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Thursday, November 17, 2016

Miners I'm Buying And Why - Part VII: Puzzle Masters Win, Thrill Seekers Don't; Potential Moonshot Plays - Small-Cap Stock Observer

Markets worldwide gasped a huge OMG on election night as the polls, like Brexit, got it wrong again. At one point Dow futures were down 900+ points, with gold shooting up $60+, but then after Trump gave his uncharacteristically polite acceptance speech, stocks sighed higher and gold calmed down.

In reality, stocks recovered on no contested change of power. Indexes remain at record highs for the moment as offside funds are more worried about bonuses and window dressing returns than the next round of raising the U.S. debt ceiling, or the fiscal cliff coming soon. The Donald seems hell-bent on building walls, roads, to war spending with less tax revenue and higher inflation regardless of the debt bubble. How can this be baked into today's USD? When will gold get its post election Trump pump?

Even after last month's sharp gold correction to now below its 200 day moving average (DMA) of around $1,255, most major and mid-tier producers, and developers, have pulled back significantly but are still up multiples of their January lows. While gold bull markets typically last four years and we may only be in the second inning, more churn to finish digesting these gains is likely into year's end.

Gold's next catalysts are in December when the Fed should again bump interest rates a quarter point. I still believe they will raise, with one caveat of how markets react to Italy's referendum on the 4th—Brexit was an excuse not to raise rates in June. Italy is not voting to stay or leave the EU, yet, but I'm curious what terms the media coins. As the 24/7 Barnum and Bailey election coverage soon ends, we should hear more about Italexit and Italeave, and later Grexit, Frexit, Oustria, Czech-out etc. Gold also benefits as we get back to worrying about banks, China, ISIS, Syria and Russia's sabre rattling.

I'm not adding any larger-cap precious metals names until late December or whenever they finish testing and holding their full 50% Fibonacci retracement level. For example, I wrote a few times about (NYSE:ABX)(TSX:ABX) Barrick Gold since last fall at $7.51, up from its $5.91 summer low, which ran to a $23.47 high this July. Half of that $17.56 or 297% four-bagger gain puts my ABX 50% Fib. support at $14.69. This arguably failed at Monday's $14.64 close, but on Tuesday's bounce above $15 and with Soros buying back in, ABX may be interesting again if it can hold that $14.69 level.

The seasonality of precious metals tends to be strongest from January to May. Mining stocks often retreat over the summer and rebound into autumn, but did the opposite this year due to Brexit, Fed drama and other macro events. Until this winter's run starts, I am holding the miners I have while leaving some dry powder to now focus more broadly on writing about what I call juniors of substance.

How To Discover Junior Mining Plays Of Substance Early, And Avoid Pitfalls

Last month I wrote about how speculating reactively in juniors is often a trap which I call Monkey's Dilemma. Unusual trading activity after news releases initially emphasize these small to micro-cap stocks. This gets them on my Hot Sheet radar but is rarely when I buy. As a contrarian investor I tend to wait for that volume and price spike to fade, and as a value investor I need to figure out what they really have after the algo-bots and day traders forget that news release and dump into the pullback.

Winning at the markets avoids being a firefly thrill seeker but instead identifies value as a patient puzzle master, which can be just as seductive and fun. For example, my May article showed how (TSX:NDM)(AMEX:NAK) Northern Dynasty Minerals at C$0.45 per share has an amazing risk / reward scenario tied to a salmon workaround to get permit approvals. Now C$1.75, doubters must be surprised by the October 28 news that the EPA has agreed to FACA mediation. Imagine the shock if NDM gets a major joint venture (JV) partner for its massive Pebble Project in Alaska. Odds are better as multi-billion dollar developments with high paying mining jobs may soon Trump any EPA issues.


Conversely, junior explorers always start with a great story ... and not much else. Most have nothing tangible other than cash and marketable securities that qualify as a worthy asset on a balance sheet. Shareholders value the story based on company presentations, newsletter articles or videos about a bunch of P's: People, Property, Price, Paper (share structure), Phinancing, Politics and Promotion.

Investor relations (IR) highlight that there is no debt, which is not prudence but because they can't service debt and nobody would be crazy enough to lend to a company with no revenue other than share issuances. Although you may not have to worry about foreclosures, you still need to hope that accounts payables for insider loans, services or back pay don't grow and turn into cheap shares for debt. For example, (TSX:LN)(OTCBB:LONCF) Loncor Resources looked ok until they closed a 67M share private placement (PP) at a cent and a half, with the CEO now controlling near half of the stock.

Over the past two years I have been selectively buying penny mining shares which have been beaten down 90% or more since 2011. I'm not just talking about share prices, their market caps were half to less than a tenth of shareholders equity. Assessing even balance sheet worthy mining assets can be complex, but when looking at many stocks this simple bear market cheapness guide helped me initially filter resource values which may again trade at multiples of book during mining bull markets.

Cash is the easiest asset to value, and when divided by the fully diluted number of shares gives you a pretty good idea of what a shell stock is worth before it turns into a new story play. I own shares in a few penny shells bought for around cash showing on the balance sheet, with mining assets and no debt. My bet is that a left for dead shell may be reincarnated via reverse takeover (RTO) if it is clean and current on filings and fees, and tightly structured with a market cap of just a few hundred $K.

RTO's are cheaper, faster and easier than an initial public offering (IPO). Shells can turn into highly leveraged, new pre-promotion plays. The risks are suffering through stock rollbacks and changes to the company's name, management, funding, assets, and sometimes the whole business focus i.e. mining to dot-com or marijuana. Some writers bet on so called zombie stocks, hoping that blown up mining plays with tons of shares and little equity or cash will still get revived. I prefer thin shells at cash and less likely to be rolled back again, as both usually end up RTO'd with a new play anyway.

I focus on deeply undervalued penny producers and developers which haven't rebounded, or newly restructured junior explorers with a great story that hasn't played yet. When a miner looks cheap, I dig to try and figure out the stock's story chapter-by-chapter, act-by-act, while always looking for industry or company catalysts worth tracking and writing about. My process found these stocks early, and I'm probably the only newsletter writer on them right now. I own shares, so consider my reasons biased.

Three (Actually Two) Potential Moonshot Plays

One of the penny shells I bought shares in a couple of years ago was Red Mile Minerals. RDM had a gold Property in the Destor-Porcupine region of Ontario, a highly prospective area with lots of gold production that could be worth another kick at the can. I didn't really care about that, remember that I focus on cash, debt and share structure. If memory serves there was no debt, cash per share was close to the share Price, with only 25M shares outstanding and a market cap of $250K. This was ripe for RTO as taking a company public for around a $1/4M is cheap if they can get control of the stock.

The Paper was tight enough that I did not expect another rollback. I was wrong as later that year RDM consolidated 5 old shares into 1 new share. That's not too bad as the standard rollback is 1 for 10, or worse. So I now have one fifth the number of shares and my average cost went from a penny to a nickel. I'm still glad the algo-bots were feeding me shares at a penny bid, as post rollback there was no size available at even multiples of my new cost. Renamed Orla Mining, shares are still tightly held.

(TSXV:OLA) Orla Mining gradually moved up through C$0.20 on no real volume or news until June 27 as they announced an expected C$6M PP. Three things stood out to me, first was the size as C$6M is a lot for a brand new shell stock to raise. Second, the Price at C$0.50 was at a significant premium to where OLA traded at under C$0.40. This represented a double bonus of more cash with less share dilution. Going into even tiny capital raises these stocks often get smashed, with the PP then done at a discount to market. Third, how can they Promote and close a fairly large PP with no mention of any new People or Properties? I had my doubts until three days later when they increased it to C$7M.

Chapter II started on July 8 with the completion of that C$7M PP. After the market close, another news release announced a change in company ownership, to include some of the biggest names in the mining industry. Most notably, Pierre Lassonde, co-founder of the world's first gold royalty business and is still chairman of (TSX:FNV)(NYSE:FNV) Franco Nevada, an C$80 stock with a market cap of C$14.3B, which has provided Buffett-like returns during good and bad gold markets. For five years until 2007 he was president and later vice chairman of (NYSE:NEM) Newmont Mining, the world's second largest gold company. Mr. Lassonde invests in miners, sits on various boards, was chairman of the World Gold Council, received the Order of Canada, won many industry awards and is in the Canadian Mining Hall of Fame, and as a philanthropist continues to give away millions.

After such a bingo on the Phinancing and People, surely they have a great Property to roll in. While I rarely resist the opportunity to lock in at least some of a ten-bagger gain, how can I sell before at least seeing the new play? My rationale was also that these guys are major mine builders who don't invest for just nickels and dimes, so if they are getting in at C$0.50 then I should probably not be leaving. On no more news, OLA again quietly ripped higher, to around a buck by the end of the summer.

Chapter III started September 14 on OLA's news of its merger with (TSXV:PRO)(OTCBB:RSPRF) Pershimco Resources. Just as exciting was to see a C$50M equity Phinancing at C$1.75 per share, a huge raise at an amazing premium to OLA's C$0.81 close. No worries about funding this time either, with the deal back-stopped by Mr. Lassonde and other insiders participating for up to C$30M. Again, why sell with the key People investing heavily at C$1.75? Just two weeks later the entire book build was done, with firm interest beyond C$50M. On October 13 the PP closed with insiders taking 44.1%.

Now I need to know what Pershimco has, their plans, and when the merger closes? Both sides must be confident as the merger news also has OLA investing C$4M in a PRO PP at C$0.33 per share, which closed September 26 with no finder's fees or warrants, or any condition that the merger even closes. This PP was also at a premium to market, and I was happily getting my PRO bids filled by the algo-bots at C$0.25. PRO shares may have arbitrage value just on the merger terms getting done, as they convert to 0.19 and 0.04 NewCo shares with a deemed value of C$0.4025 based on OLA at C$1.75.


PRO's June balance sheet seems clean with C$6.6M cash versus C$2.4M current liabilities, and with C$75.5M assets versus C$20.4M long-term debt. Shareholders equity is C$60.8M, not including the C$4M PP cash injected in September. PRO's market cap is C$76.8M at C$0.26 per share, or barely above book value and at a discount to the last PP Price. The sum of the parts combined merger value roughly suggests around C$235M based on the net present value (NPV) of PRO's resources and the cash in both companies, less a guesstimate on expenses. If correct, this works out to around C$1.85 per OLA share with 126.7M shares anticipated as the merger closes, plus huge exploration upside!

PRO's fully-owned Cerro Quema Project in Panama has a gold oxide heap-leach production scenario in the last stage of permitting, and a copper-gold porphyry target. Their website shows a potential world-class deposit with 878,700 ounces so far, after-tax NPV of C$176.3M, 41.4% IRR, a low cost, open pit operation of over 100K gold ounces in year one. As for exploration potential, PRO has a 15K hectare concession, a 17km trend to expand gold oxide resources, plus gold and copper in sulphides below the oxide caps with 12km of strike length to pursue a prized copper-gold porphyry system.

Some throw around the term world-class deposit with buyout potential. When true, major producers and institutions usually know about the play and have a stake. PRO's top shareholders are: Sentient Funds, AGF, Goodman & Co., RBC Asset Management, and especially (NYSE:AEM)(TSX:AEM) Agnico Eagle Mines. I'm looking for shareholder approval at the end of this month, and Panama's Ministry of Environment approval by the end of January. Post merger, with over $50M in the kitty, I want to see lots of news flow from mine development to exploration drilling for more oxide gold, to hopefully discovering a major copper-gold porphyry. V.OLA closed at C$1.42 and V.PRO at C$0.26.

This typical mining cycle chart is similar to Pierre Lassonde's in "The Gold Book: The Complete Investment Guide to Precious Metals". In blue I point to where I think OLA / PRO and ADV are.


(TSX:ADV)(OTCBB:AXXDF) Alderon Iron Ore is a stock that I didn't think I would be writing about for another year or so. I mean my dime bids were getting algo-bot fills every so often, but who wants to hear about a deeply undervalued development play trading near decade lows, with next to no volume or news, and in the least sexiest sector. Some days ADV didn't trade and a good day is 100K shares. However, this changed a few days after their October 19 news sank in, and as iron ore spot prices soared to three-year highs of over $80 a ton on Trump's win, doubling its $38 low a year ago.


ADV is updating its preliminary economic assessment (PEA) for Q1 next year based on a new Kami Mine concept incorporating the nearby idled Wabush Scully Mine. Kami is located in Canada's safe Labrador Trough, with modern infrastructure near other mines, rail and ports. The re-scoping should provide various capital and operating costs savings to help ADV 75% and its strategic JV partner Hesteel Group of China 25% (World's second largest steel producer) advance Kami's development.

(NYSE:BHP) BHP Billiton, (NYSE:RIO) Rio Tinto and (NYSE:VALE) Vale are the world's largest producers of iron ore and other metals globally, whose shares have doubled or more this year. With market caps of $40B to $100B, any one of these could easily gobble up tiny ADV. Kami offers a cheaper, high grade ore body compared to more costly, lower grade, dirty deposits in South America, Australia and elsewhere, but Hesteel also has deep pockets and needs quality iron ore to make steel.

After looking at junior iron ore development plays, ADV's financials and story seem to offer the most compelling combination of deep value and potential, with some really big government supported P's as the story reawakens. Their website shows feasibility study highlights of: 8M tonnes per year at 65.2% iron, $1.27B capital cost, $42.17 per ton operating cost, 29.3% pre-tax IRR, $3.24B NPV8, 3.8-year payback on a 30-year mine with 669Mt P&P reserves, 1.275Bt M&I and 523Mt Inferred.

ADV's 2015 balance sheet is what first caught my eye earlier this year. At a dime per share the market cap was only C$13M, or at today's quarter shares the market values ADV at C$34M. September shows C$38M cash, C$206M assets and C$20M debt. Shareholders equity is just under C$185M or C$1.40 per share, which means that my C$0.10 shares were at 1/14th of book value, about 1/3rd of cash alone, or at less than cash after repaying all the debt. Today's C$0.255 shares still cost less than a fifth of book. ADV was added to our Top 30 Small-Caps at a dime this summer, and posted on our Hot Sheet on the news and spike to C$0.48 last month. After a sharp 70% correction to C$0.20, ADV remains active on no news, so it may be a good time to share why I like this near-term value play.


Gotta love them algo-bots when they keep feeding my bids cheap stock. It's also nice as a great story comes together, and both of these plays have quality assets with sound financials and lots of big P's already in place. I have a few more moonshot plays that run the gamut from RTO penny shells, to deep value, to exponential growth potential, if you care to comment and let me know your interest?

My calculations and observations are as an individual investor and are not recommendations. Data comes from financial reports, news releases, company websites and other public sources that may not be accurate, complete or up to date. There may be conflicts of interest as I own stock in some of these companies. I share these ideas in hopes that readers will comment on them and on other company stock boards at our website with your own insights, opinions and anything I may have missed.

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Saturday, October 29, 2016

InvestorsGuru.com 9 Filtered Mid-Day Market Movers Recap

Mid-Day Market Movers focus on above average volume, price action, breakout chart trends and news - posted throughout the day live at the top of InvestorsGuru.com, on our Hot Sheet and @InvestorsGuru Twitter feed. Below recaps last week's movers, all prices when posted, week high price Wk-H:, with a brief company description and recent news headlines. Submit any ticker symbol to our Detailed Quote Portal (top-left of all pages) for quotes, java charts, research and news, where you can also login with any major social account to post updates, comments, and share your own best ideas about any stock.

TSX Venture (quote V. and ticker symbol)
(TSXV:AMZ)(OTCBB:AXDDF) Almadex Minerals Ltd. Aug.8 $0.61 $1.31 Wk-H: $1.65
- gold-rich porphyry system Norte target, El Cobre project, Mexico, hits 218m 0.70g/t gold, 0.28% copper incl. 80.50m 1.34g/t Au, 0.46% Cu

TSX (quote T. and ticker symbol)
(TSX:ADV)(OTCBB:AXXDF) Alderon Iron Ore Corp. Jul.12 $0.10 $0.36 Wk-H: $0.48
- developing its Labrador Kami project with China's Hesteel, engages BBA to prepare PEA on new mine concept with idled Wabush Scully Mine
(TSX:NML)(OTCBB:NWLNF) New Millennium Iron Corp. $0.105 Wk-H: $0.135
- developing iron ore in the Labrador Trough and Menihek Quebec, signs to complete gov't contribution to Tata Steel; gets TSMC settlement

NYSE MKT AMEX
(AMEX:NG)(TSX:NG) Novagold Resources Inc. (2014: $2.87)(2015: $3.38 $3.65 $3.71) Feb.13 $4.66 $4.88 $6.14 $4.90 Wk-H: $5.01
- 50% of Alaska's Donlin (of world's largest, highest grade Au deposits), Q3 permitting progress, partnerships deepen, strong cash position
(AMEX:NAK)(TSX:NDM) Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. May16 $0.34 $0.47 $0.76 $1.03 $0.57 $0.66 Wk-H: $1.04
- 100% Alaska's Pebble resource: world's largest undeveloped copper AND gold deposits, EPA agree to mediation to resolve FACA litigation
(AMEX:BGI) Birks Group Inc. (2013: $1.34 $2.13) $1.65 Wk-H: $2.20
- 46 luxury jewelry stores: Canada, Florida and Georgia, July 5 announced turnaround to profitability, continued sales growth & higher income
(AMEX:XXII) 22nd Century Group Inc. $1.36 Wk-H: $1.45
- very low nicotine cigarettes significantly reduce withdrawal and craving symptoms in vulnerable population groups; closes $11.4M at $1.34

NASDAQ
(NASDAQ:AMD) Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (2013: $3.18 $4.23 $4.44)(2014: $4.15 $4.15 $4.42) Aug.8 $6.70 $7.65 $7.41 Wk-H: $7.53
- Radeon Pro 400 Series Graphics; Arka Media Works VR collaboration; Lenovo debuts desktops/notebooks with 7th gen. AMD PRO processors
(NASDAQ:TWER) Towerstream Corp. $1.35 Wk-H: $1.56
- fixed-wireless fiber alternative delivers high-speed internet access to businesses, H2 new building additions projected to more than double

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Saturday, October 22, 2016

InvestorsGuru.com 13 Filtered Mid-Day Market Movers Recap

Mid-Day Market Movers focus on above average volume, price action, breakout chart trends and news - posted throughout the day live at the top of InvestorsGuru.com, on our Hot Sheet and @InvestorsGuru Twitter feed. Below recaps last week's movers, all prices when posted, week high price Wk-H:, with a brief company description and recent news headlines. Submit any ticker symbol to our Detailed Quote Portal (top-left of all pages) for quotes, java charts, research and news, where you can also login with any major social account to post updates, comments, and share your own best ideas about any stock.

TSX Venture (quote V. and ticker symbol)
(TSXV:OLA) Orla Mining Ltd. Jun.27 $0.40 $0.70 $1.33 $1.40 Wk-H: $1.50
- merging with (TSXV:PRO)(OTCBB:RSPRF) Pershimco Resources - Panama Cerro Quema oxide gold, closes C$50M p.p. receipts at $1.75/share
(TSXV:XOP)(OTCBB:RGCTF) Canadian Overseas Petroleum Ltd. (2013: $0.23 $0.295) Sep.14 $0.115 $0.155 Wk-H: $0.18
- intl. O&G exploration and development focused on offshore West Africa, completes 80% acquisition of Essar Expl. and Production in Nigeria
(TSXV:TLT)(OTCBB:TLTFF) Theralase Technologies Inc. (2014: $0.55)(2015: $0.35) $0.395 Wk-H: $0.44
- patented super-pulsed medical lasers, Health Canada grants ITA approval; demonstrates significant increase in brain cancer survival
(TSXV:QPT)(OTCBB:QPTFF) Quest PharmaTech Inc. (2013: $0.065) $0.09 Wk-H: $0.15
- Anti-MUC1 MAb AR20.5 induces specific cell mediated immune response to MUC1 antigen in pre-clinical pancreatic cancer model
(TSXV:CNX)(OTCBB:CLLXF) Callinex Mines Inc. $0.49 Wk-H: $0.60
- developing zinc and copper rich mines in prolific Canadian VMS areas, zinc and gold discovery: 10.3m 13.1% Zn-eq. incl. 4.2m 20.8% Zn eq.

TSX (quote T. and ticker symbol)
(TSX:CGC)(OTCBB:TWMJF) Canopy Growth Corp. (2014: $3.59) $6.40 Wk-H: $7.35
- a world-leading diversified cannabis co., renews agreement with XIB Consulting; Tweed and Snoop Dogg launch Leafs by Snoop in Canada
(TSX:ERD)(OTCBB:ERDCF) Erdene Resource Development Corp. $0.485 Wk-H: $0.54
- exploring for base/precious metals in Mongolia, hits 68m of 2.0g/t Au in 170m step-out at Bayan Khundii, Striker zone drills 31m 6.8g/t Au

OTCBB
(OTCBB:ASPU) Aspen Group Inc. $0.24 Wk-H: $0.28
- online post-secondary education, Q1-F2017 revenue +62%, gross margin +1,500 basis points, first quarter enrolls record 621 new students

NYSE MKT AMEX
(AMEX:BTG)(TSX:BTO) B2Gold Corp. (2015: $1.19) Feb.22 $1.11 $2.04 $2.46 $2.82 $2.15 $2.66 Wk-H: $2.81
- Otjikoto Namibia, Masbate Philippines, La Libertad and El Limon Nicaragua, DENR audit results; record Q3/YTD gold production and revenue
(AMEX:NAK)(TSX:NDM) Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. May16 $0.34 $0.47 $0.76 $1.03 $0.57 $0.66 Wk-H: $0.74
- Alaska Pebble resource: world's largest undeveloped copper AND gold deposits, lawyers cap US EPA legal costs in return for success fee
(AMEX:GST) Gastar Exploration Inc. (2013-2014 10 posts: $1.59 to $8.28) $1.34 Wk-H: $1.43
- focused on U.S. O&G shale plays, Oklahoma development agreement, non-core Cdn. property sale and revolving credit facility amendment

NASDAQ
(NASDAQ:DRWI)(TSX:DWI) DragonWave Inc. (2013: $1.99)(2014: $1.46) $4.20 Wk-H: $4.77
- global supplier of packet microwave radio systems, equipment selected for (NYSE:S) Sprint's network densification and optimization strategy
(NASDAQ:ABEO) Abeona Therapeutics Inc. $7.66 Wk-H: $9.44
- developing gene/plasma to treat rare genetic diseases, gets EU orphan drug status for ABO-102 gene therapy in Sanfilippo Syndrome type A

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Saturday, October 15, 2016

InvestorsGuru.com 11 Filtered Mid-Day Market Movers Recap

Mid-Day Market Movers focus on above average volume, price action, breakout chart trends and news - posted throughout the day live at the top of InvestorsGuru.com, on our Hot Sheet and @InvestorsGuru Twitter feed. Below recaps last week's movers, all prices when posted, week high price Wk-H:, with a brief company description and recent news headlines. Submit any ticker symbol to our Detailed Quote Portal (top-left of all pages) for quotes, java charts, research and news, where you can also login with any major social account to post updates, comments, and share your own best ideas about any stock.

TSX Venture (quote V. and ticker symbol)
(TSXV:APH)(OTCBB:APHQF) Aphria Inc. Sep.14 $3.03 $3.70 Wk-H: $3.81
- of Canada's leading licensed medical cannabis producers, $1M quarterly EBITDA +102%, 72% quarter over quarter increase in kilograms sold
(TSXV:AIX)(OTCBB:ARXRF) Alix Resources Corp. $0.085 Wk-H: $0.10
- Electra Project, Sonora, Mexico phase 1 drill program; discovers new lithium-rich clay zone and secures Agua Fria property

TSX (quote T. and ticker symbol)
(TSX:IVN)(OTCBB:IVPAF) Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (2015: $0.66) Aug.16 $1.71 $2.34 Wk-H: $2.39
- developing DRC's Kamoa & Kipushi Cu-Zn & SA's Platreef PGM, Kamoa-Kakula now largest copper discovery ever made on African continent
(TSX:GEN)(OTCBB:GNWSF) GeneNews Ltd. Mar.7 $0.135 $0.17 $0.49 Wk-H: $0.57
- proprietary molecular blood tests, financings update; director buys 2.5m units; early cancer diagnostics with NueHealth; $1.6M pp at $0.16

NYSE MKT AMEX
(AMEX:TGD)(TSX:TMM) Timmins Gold Corp. (2015: $0.30 $0.20) Feb.3 $0.13 $0.18 $0.46 $0.55 $0.42 $0.46 Wk-H: $0.495
- operating and developing mines in Mexico, Nov. 3 Q3 24,052/oz. gold production; updates NI 43-101 San Francisco mine technical report
(AMEX:STRP) Straight Path Communications Inc. Class B $30.52 Wk-H: $31.96
- (NASDAQ:WIN) Windstream to expand fixed wireless technology in 40 markets using CBNL equipment & Straight Path spectrum; 2016 Q4/YE

NASDAQ
(NASDAQ:NYMX) Nymox Pharmaceutical Corp. (2015: $1.51 $3.02) $3.76 Wk-H: $4.73
- lead drug fexapotide to treat prostate cancer, successful new phase 3 improvement up to 6 years after single repeated treatment
(NASDAQ:BSPM) Biostar Pharmaceuticals Inc. (2013: $1.91) $5.29 Wk-H: $7.06
- pharmaceuticals and health supplements in China, $1.91M at $4.50/share; new product aimed at treating effects of Rhinitis and Sinusitis
(NASDAQ:NVFY) Nova LifeStyle Inc. $4.37 Wk-H: $5.05
- U.S.-based maker of modern life style furniture, signs $15M/year framework agreement to supply products to a Hong Kong & Malaysian Co.
(NASDAQ:HTGM) HTG Molecular Diagnostics Inc. $3.06 Wk-H: $4.45
- instruments and reagents for molecular profiling, Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, Germany, enter into master companion diagnostics agreement

NYSE
(NYSE:CUDA) Barracuda Networks Inc. $25.21 Wk-H: $26.69
- IT cloud-enabled solutions, expands biz data protection functionality running (MSFT) Microsoft Office 365, adds SharePoint Online backup

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Thursday, October 6, 2016

Miners I'm Buying And Why - Part VI: Gold Foundations; Monkey's Dilemma; What Summer Doldrums? - Small-Cap Stock Observer

Strong And Timely Gold Foundations Going Forward

I have been holding off writing about gold and silver since the Brexit vote to leave the EU pushed gold prices in June above last year's highs. This unexpected outcome was a key marker to me that gold's cycle bottom was in, but I wanted to wait for several short-term crosscurrents to work out first.

Why were gold's commitment of traders (COT) reports so persistently short at record levels? This can be seen as bearish or bullish, but in the long-term should not matter. Gold had to fall for them to win, or instead could turn into aggressive loss cover buying at the next technical breakout level at around $1,400. Conspiracy theories aside, nobody knew gold's next major move and in the meantime a rest was needed for its 200 day moving average of around $1,255 to catch up to this year's higher prices.

On the macro side we are now in a strong retail gold buying time during the Indian wedding season, but we have been distracted worrying about Deutsche and other banks failing which could violently move gold either way. And the Fed is still crying wolf about hiking interest rates with its gold price dampening effect as seen by this week's $60+ drop to $1,250, its first time below $1,300 since Brexit.

I could go on about fears from wars to the USD, deflation to hyperinflation, negative interest rates to currency collapse, but what's the point? You just have to get the longer-term trend correct and get in early, or wait for the next correction which is where I believe we are at. Else becomes noise which can cause rash decisions or paralyse us into giving up and not doing anything. Over the last year I wrote about some of the gold and silver miners I own or like and thought an update could be timely.

Last October's article, "my gold value thesis, miners I'm buying and why - Part I" reasoned why the bottom for precious metals appeared to be close. Nobody knows exactly when a market will turn, which is why I wanted leverage to higher gold prices but not to debt. Major gold and silver producers typically move first, but I also considered mid-tier to junior mining stocks as the big boys' balance sheets seemed a mess. I have no problem giving up some potential upside for a less risky bet, however the numbers suggested certain smaller-cap miners offered superior safety in addition to extra alpha.

My go to major is (NYSE:ABX)(TSX:ABX) Barrick Gold which I thought was still not cheap. ABX was up from its $6 lows to $7.51 then, with a market cap of $8.75B, a negative P/E and still paying $0.02 per quarter yielding 1%. Although ABX was down 85% from its $50 high in 2011 and was trading below $10B in shareholders equity, long-term debt was over $12B. ABX has sold assets and cut debt by over $3B so far with the stock now at $15.30 and was a three bagger at $23.47 in July.

November's Part II detailed three exceptional value penny stock gold producers, which are still on our Top 30 Small-Caps. Gold's bear claws were still slashing mining shares back then, with financings next to impossible. Pure exploration plays were avoided as my filters focused on producers and developers with at least survival cash, low to no debt, and deeply discounted resources plus growth potential. The best value miners game was to data mine gold under $10/oz. from financial statements and quietly accumulate shares until precious metals signal a bottom and upward momentum returns.

You had to dig but they were out there. Well timed and informed investing in mining shares can be extremely rewarding, just keep in mind that if you don't know the real value of what you own then even the best traders will eventually end up holding a load of crap. Many companies promise millions of ounces someday but the stocks I first focused on were significantly de-risked with permits or already producing, with economic resource studies reflecting value trading at a fraction of book.

(TSX:PRU)(ASX:PRU) Perseus Mining was C$0.33, now C$0.46, year high C$0.67, 2011 high C$4.21; (AMEX:BAA)(TSX:BAA) Banro was $0.18, now $0.27, year high $0.48, 2012 high $6.05, 2006 high $14.60; and (AMEX:TGD)(TSX:TMM) Timmins Gold was $0.20, now $0.42, year high $0.63, 2012 high $3.47. Doubles are nice but these three have actually lagged others I also still hold. They were bought as longer term value and growth plays and it's my eventual sale prices that really matter. Every miner has hiccups and I'm satisfied these three producers are executing their plans.

As an update, Perseus had record profits when producing 220k ounces of gold last year in Ghana and should soon be back to that level as transitions complete to Edikan's higher grade pits. With higher gold prices their Ivory Coast Sissingue mine is again under construction and should be ready late next year. Even bigger news was the acquisition of Amara Mining and its large Yaoure gold project.

With ~12M ounces in all categories, plus half as much added this year, in a few years PRU expects to be a multi-country, multi-mine producer of half a million ounces per year. I like the Amara deal and that July cash was up to C$175M still with no debt, but not the dilution indigestion as shares doubled to 1B. Even so, PRU's June equity was C$733M versus today's market cap of only C$471M.

Last year Banro had record revenues and EBITDA with gold production guidance of 175k-195k ounces. Twangiza started in 2012 and their second mine, Namoya, entered commercial production in January. Located 210km apart on the same gold belt, production after ramp-up should exceed 250k ounces per year. Between them are Lugushwa and Kamituga, two more large mines to be developed. In February a Chinese group with others provided ~$100M in equity, streaming and debt financing.

BAA has tons of upside potential with over 15M high-grade, low-cost ounces in all categories, ~$1B in assets and $391M in shareholders equity versus a market cap of only $82M—Namoya alone cost $400M to build. I'm not as worried about Africa's DRC as some, but I do want to see the terms met later this year to move $196M in short-term debt to long-term debt. With rising production and higher gold prices BAA can quickly unlock value and become a rocket again just by paying down its debt.

I thought Timmins would be a no-brainer instead of a roller coaster ride. San Francisco was a simple heap-leach mine in safe Sonora Mexico producing gold profitably for years that could expand through exploration. TGD's Caballo Blanco and Ana Paula were advanced new projects to develop and grow. (NYSE:GG)(TSX:G) Goldcorp had just bought 9.9% of TGD and sold them a processing plant for C$8M that will save US$40M-$60M. As TGD's market cap fell under $75M, (NYSE:GDXJ) Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF had dumped its 18M share hoard making the stock even cheaper.

TGD had $300M in assets and no long-term debt but had warned a significant impairment charge was coming. To me that means 20%-30%, not 80% or $227M in writedowns. TGD's CEO was gone and the next surprise was how long it took to replace just a $10M short-term loan. Then their mine was going to close in 2017 if gold prices didn't rise, and later Caballo Blanco was sold cheap to pay back the loan. My producer was turning back into a developer with two instead of three mines—then gold prices pushed higher. Long story short, TGD is back on track. August Q2 cash flow was $11.5M and mine operations are now extended into 2023. Ana Paula had 4 to 7+ g/t drill results last fall and TGD just outlined its complete pre-construction program with $9.2M for drilling, feasibility and permitting.

Monkey's Dilemma

In hindsight, some might shake off my timing as just lucky and say that everything gold and silver related has soared this year. Any monkey with a list of mining stocks and a few darts could have out performed. This is somewhat true, but how would the monkey have known to avoid mining shares as they fell for four years by around 90% until last summer 2015? How will it know when to get out?

An early monkey can get lucky and have fun for a while. Its IQ pretends to dramatically go higher as it confuses brains with a bull market. Decisions are based on a stock's story and market moves after news releases. Simple balance sheet comparisons like cash to current liabilities and assets to debt are way too much effort, forget about reading feasibility studies. Yes this is sarcasm, but true.

Mining stocks tend to move in big percentage pre-news fits and starts, called "rips", which can make for frustrating short-term technical analysis (TA). Market makers read charts too and know how to make the price spread and bid/ask sizes look weak to shake out traders before ripping higher, or how to make them look technically strong to suck in buyers before a down rip. It's fine to track longer-term trends and use TA to scalp a bit more out of a trade, but value should drive what and when to buy/sell.

The monkey believes a good story on high volume has worked great so far and in a bull market nobody really cares how high the market cap is because the company has cashed up and will be generating much more news. Why even bother comparing the stock's market value to things like shareholders equity and book value, or to resource net present values (NPV) and internal rate of returns (IRR)? Without understanding these real tangible asset values how will the monkey know whether a pullback is just temporary before the next double rip, or that the story has already ended?

I'm not an accountant and I'm not suggesting we need to be. These values can easily be found at a glance at our site when quoting any stock, and then clicking the "financials" tab which has every company's balance sheet, income statement and cash flow report. Company news releases and websites usually provide them, as well as any AISC mine plans showing all CapEx/OpEx needed to build and operate. AISC means all-in sustaining cost per ounce, CapEx/OpEx are upfront capital and ongoing operating expenditures, and PEA is preliminary economic assessment. If your mining stock's balance sheet shows little cash or equity and doesn't at least have a PEA, know that it's a story stock.

After considering these financial details, I need to understand a company's capital structure and how it is distributed. Are there hundreds of millions of common shares outstanding and if so are expectations big enough to churn higher through all that stock? Do fickle retail traders own most of the stock, or is it closely held by loyal institutions and insiders incentivized to raise the share price?

Junior explorers with nothing but a bloated share structure, exhausted story and little cash usually can't get financed until they roll back the stock. This destroys value as resulting fragments of board lots are discarded by frustrated monkeys and eventually new shares issued at even lower prices with warrants attached, both representing dilution. Paying attention to private placements (PP) is especially important now as many miners were able to refinance earlier this year as precious metals prices started rising. Miners have capital to grow again with gold's bull market tailwind, however PPs can also create a headwind after the four month hold ends as shares are sold to just ride the free warrants.

Just as important is to pay attention to any debt financing terms. I pass on miners with even large, valuable assets if the debt seems scary. (TSX:JAG)(OTCBB:JAGGF) Jaguar Mining was in the mid teen cents last winter and it was not the amount of debt but the early warning disclosures I didn't like, which seemed like a heads you win, tails I lose situation. On default, debt holders typically have first claim on assets and the common gets nothing, but debentures also get 12% interest as they wait and represent huge potential share dilution if and when they can convert to equity at C$0.15 per share. JAG story buyers are winning so far as the shares are now C$0.64 with an August high of C$0.85.

Our Hot Sheet focuses on timely short-term technical trades, but for longer-term investments I rely on fundamental filters to source some of our best value and growth plays to write about. Last year my research was precious-metals balance-sheet driven; in a bear market you have time to accumulate these potential ten bagger stocks as they remain out of favour and quiet with little news at their decade lows. Back then you could find gold stocks with lots of cash and millions of proven low cost ounces trading at a fraction of book value and well under $10 an ounce, but today this is getting harder.

Some miners I invest in and hold core positions, others I trade. Investors have a longer-term focus that weighs risks and values financial details, while monkeys tend to just react to headlines and are drawn to preachy doom and gloom videos I call stock operas. Avoiding a monkey's dilemma comes down to knowing the difference between fundamentals with undervalued assets and a hot potato speculation.

What Summer Doldrums?

Part III: 2016 market stages set was about macro events in a tired bull market with predictors, the Fed, debt, USD, China, oil, and the US elections. With markets down -5.5% the January Effect predicted a down market this year, but we all know that ever higher debt and Fed actions are what traders fixate on. I still believe that lower oil prices stimuli may be the only reason we don't already have QE4.

China has been quiet and falling behind in the world's currency devaluation race. This may change with the Yuan now officially added as an IMF SDR and with the US elections over next month. As for the next president, both parties mismanage debt but voters might ask in the last three decades which party has started wars versus ending them, who was in power during the last three market crashes versus the last two bull markets and for the only four years with budget surpluses since 1969.

Part IV detailed three quality mid-tiers which are significant producers with large development projects to grow. I watched these stocks drop from around $10 for years before writing about them in February as their mid-January lows were made at well under $1 per share. Although the math shows these miners were already cheap for over two years, TA saved me from getting in far too soon. All have been five to seven baggers at recent highs and still look good: (TSX:AR)(OTCBB:ARNGF) Argonaut Gold then C$1.52 up from C$0.78, now C$2.72, high of C$4.45; (AMEX:BTG)(TSX:BTO) B2Gold then $1.11 up from $0.60, now $2.15, high of $3.65; and (TSX:SVM)(OTCBB:SVMLF) Silvercorp Metals then C$1.27 up from C$0.60, now C$3.31, high of C$4.73. These can double again.

After topping $1,920 an ounce in 2011, gold continued to slide each year as the usual writers kept claiming gold's lows were in—eventually they had to be right. For me, I needed to see gold close above last year's high close of $1,302 before being convinced. Gold was up an impressive 21% from $1,063 at the start of this year to $1,283 going into May, but by the end of May was back down to $1,213. Gold had still not breached $1,300 on a closing basis and looked ready to top out going into the weak summer doldrums, but then instead of going sideways or sliding further, gold strengthened.

Any good TA monkey knows to protect profits and to sell in May and go away. I don't agree about selling everything, but rebalancing by trimming oversized positions at times makes sense. Other than instinct I can't explain why I fully rode out this summer and didn't sell anything, but I'm glad I didn't. I mean I don't know anyone who believed the Brexit vote would be to leave the EU and had the guts to bet on it. That surprise is what finally ripped gold above last year's highs, where it held until Tuesday.

As of June I became convinced that we have seen gold's low this cycle, and for holding all my gold miners this summer you might say I'm no better than a lucky monkey. Even as gold pulled back in May to the low $1,200's, almost every major and mid-tier precious metals producer was still up multiples of its January low. My articles planned to go from the safer majors, to mid-tiers, to developers and finally to riskier explorers as the new gold bull market trickled down to each group. This can take years but in less than six months everything was starting to fly. Always in pursuit of more alpha, this gold strength with breadth focused my May article on mine developers.

Developers are often called optionality plays as they require higher metals prices to be economical. These five stocks have some of the world's largest undeveloped gold and silver resources, plus other metals. Most had no debt and traded well below book—one traded at cash. Some already work at today's metals prices: (AMEX:XRA)(TSX:XRC) Exeter Resource was $0.87 up from January's $0.31 low, now $1.10, high of $1.48; (TSXV:CKG)(OTCBB:CHPGF) Chesapeake Gold then C$3.45 up from C$1.75, now C$4.62, high of C$6.50; (TSX:NDM)(AMEX:NAK) Northern Dynasty Minerals then C$0.45 up from C$0.28, now C$0.76, high of C$1.48; (AMEX:THM)(TSX:ITH) Intl. Tower Hill Mines then $0.64 up from $0.18, now $0.69, high of $1.40; and (TSX:MSV)(OTCBB:MISVF) Minco Silver then C$1.22 up from C$0.385, now C$1.17, high of C$2.05. Check out their 2011 highs.

I bought NDM shares at C$0.45 and MSV at C$0.50 and continue to hold both. I believe NDM can find a salmon workaround to get its enormous Pebble Project permitted, which seems supported by last week's news of its lawyers capping legal fees in return for a success fee. MSV remains quiet with no real news since purchasing the Changkeng gold project over a year ago. I still say they are waiting for $20+ silver and a higher MSV share price before letting the market know its development plans.

I hesitated on buying XRC at C$0.60 and CKG at C$1.50 hoping for even lower prices, which I regret as I think they could be taken out some day near their 2011 highs. Both provided staged development plans last winter with lower costs. THM's low grade, negative NPV until $1,700 gold, huge CapEx and negative working capital still bothers me. THM's reworked mine plan last month also lowers costs but now their recoverable ounces have been slashed. All of these developers have great potential in a rising gold market but also have specific hurdles to clear, identified in my Part V May article.

Conclusion

Earlier this year gold rose sharply, it needed a breather and has been going sideways for three months. Gold either had to break below $1,300 and test its 200 day moving average or the shorts would be caught as gold blew through $1,400. Now that gold's 200 DMA support at around $1,255 has caught up, and with much of the speculative margin excess wrung out, gold can soon resume its uptrend.

The Fed follies featuring the we're gonna raise gang is a broken record which surprised nobody last month. After the election, in December again, I believe rates can go up another quarter point but they are so far behind the curve can it matter? How can history's largest debtor nation get to even 1%, and forget about anything like 20% Fed funds rate seen in 1979 needed to stop gold's 25X rise at $850/oz. Gold actually moves higher as interest rates rise and GATA should dare the Fed to put up or shut up but we all know rates will keep being talked up as doing it reveals that tiny yearly bumps don't matter.

Precious metals were due and did finally turn higher this year. Gold bull cycles typically last around four years, although gold was up twelve straight from 2001-2012. It feels like the second inning and that gold's September Fed pause will soon end when the bull can reawaken. Later this month Part VII will focus on five speculative plays of substance, which I own and believe have moonshot potential.

My calculations and observations are as an individual investor and are not recommendations. Data comes from financial reports, news releases, company websites and other public sources that may not be accurate, complete or up to date. There may be conflicts of interest as I own stock in some of these companies. I share these ideas in hopes that readers will comment on them and on other company stock boards at our website with your own insights, opinions and anything I may have missed.

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Saturday, October 1, 2016

InvestorsGuru.com 7 Filtered Mid-Day Market Movers Recap

Mid-Day Market Movers focus on above average volume, price action, breakout chart trends and news - posted throughout the day live at the top of InvestorsGuru.com, on our Hot Sheet and @InvestorsGuru Twitter feed. Below recaps last week's movers, all prices when posted, week high price Wk-H:, with a brief company description and recent news headlines. Submit any ticker symbol to our Detailed Quote Portal (top-left of all pages) for quotes, java charts, research and news, where you can also login with any major social account to post updates, comments, and share your own best ideas about any stock.

TSX Venture (quote V. and ticker symbol)
(TSXV:DMI)(OTCBB:DMIFF) Diamcor Mining Inc. (2011: $0.30) $1.34 Wk-H: $1.50
- established diamond producer in South Africa, comments on unusual trading activity; provides Q2 update on rough diamond tenders
(TSXV:MGW)(OTCBB:MPEFF) Maple Leaf Green World Inc. (2014: $0.085) $0.43 Wk-H: $0.49
- agri./enviro. focused co. with medical/legalized marijuana, tree seedlings and nursery products, California project starts shipping first crop

TSX (quote T. and ticker symbol)
(TSX:TV)(OTCBB:TREVF) Trevali Mining Corp. (2014: $1.19) Apr.14 $0.425 $0.78 $1.11 Wk-H: $1.13
- Peru & N.B. Canada zinc-focused base metals producer, expands high-grade Zn-Pb-Ag at Santander and discovers new central-Oyon zone
(TSX:ECO)(OTCBB:ECSNF) EcoSynthetix Inc. $2.28 Wk-H: $2.45
- engineered biopolymers that replace manufacturer's non-renewable chemicals, first commercial customer for DuraBind technology

NYSE MKT AMEX
(AMEX:GORO) Gold Resource Corp. (2014: $5.73) Sep.6 $6.45 $7.85 Wk-H: $8.22
- high-grade gold and silver in Oaxaca Mexico and Nevada, declares Sept. 1/6 of a cent monthly dividend payable in cash or physical metal

NASDAQ
(NASDAQ:CATB) Catabasis Pharmaceuticals Inc. $6.33 Wk-H: $7.89
- rare diseases SMART linker drug discovery platform, Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy joint research with (NASDAQ:SRPT) Sarepta Therapeutics

NYSE
(NYSE:ECA)(TSX:ECA) Encana Corp. Feb.24 $3.63 $5.89 $8.39 $9.98 Wk-H: $10.56
- a leading natural gas, oil & NGL producer, Oct. 5 to hold NYC investor day; Sept. 23 completes sales of US$1B in common shares at US$9.35

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Saturday, September 17, 2016

InvestorsGuru.com 12 Filtered Mid-Day Market Movers Recap

Mid-Day Market Movers focus on above average volume, price action, breakout chart trends and news - posted throughout the day live at the top of InvestorsGuru.com, on our Hot Sheet and @InvestorsGuru Twitter feed. Below recaps last week's movers, all prices when posted, week high price Wk-H:, with a brief company description and recent news headlines. Submit any ticker symbol to our Detailed Quote Portal (top-left of all pages) for quotes, java charts, research and news, where you can also login with any major social account to post updates, comments, and share your own best ideas about any stock.

TSX Venture (quote V. and ticker symbol)
(TSXV:OLA) Orla Mining Ltd. Jun.27 $0.40 $0.70 $1.33 Wk-H: $1.67
- to merge with (TSXV:PRO)(OTCBB:RSPRF) Pershimco Res.' - Panama Cerro Quema gold oxide, back-stopped by up to $50M pp at $1.75/share
(TSXV:XOP)(OTCBB:RGCTF) Canadian Overseas Petroleum Ltd. (2013: $0.23 $0.295) $0.115 Wk-H: $0.12
- intl. oil & gas expl. & dev. co. focused on offshore West Africa, completes 80% acquisition of Essar Exploration and Production Ltd. in Nigeria
(TSXV:APH)(OTCBB:APHQF) Aphria Inc. $3.03 Wk-H: $3.23
- of Canada's leading licensed medical cannabis producers, to triple capacity; partners with leading intl. consumer lifestyle brand Tokyo Smoke

TSX (quote T. and ticker symbol)
(TSX:ELD)(NYSE:EGO) Eldorado Gold Corp. Jan.13 $3.68 $4.90 Wk-H: $5.27
- low cost major gold producer in Turkey, China, Greece, Romania, Serbia and Brazil, updates outlook with continued sustainable growth
(TSX:ASR)(OTCBB:ALIAF) Alacer Gold Corp. $3.74 Wk-H: $3.78
- intermediate gold miner with 80% of the world-class Copler Gold Mine in Turkey, new reserve for Gediktepe Project provides future growth
(TSX:DNA)(OTCBB:DRLDF) Dalradian Resources Inc. $1.61 Wk-H: $1.68
- high-grade Curraghinalt Gold Project in N. Ireland, $24.5M in warrant exercises; recovers 54% more gold than predicted in resource model

NYSE MKT AMEX
(AMEX:STS) Supreme Industries Inc. (2013: $4.55 $5.36)(2014: $8.16) Aug.23 $16.05 $18.14 Wk-H: $19.73
- makes specialized commercial vehicles and truck bodies, $0.035 per share quarterly cash dividend; Q2 net income +91% on sales +12%
(AMEX:NAVB) Navidea Biopharmaceuticals Inc. (2013: $1.65 $2.15)(2014: $1.44)(2015: $2.00) Sep.6 $0.60 $0.89 Wk-H: $1.09
- precision diagnostic radiopharmaceuticals, European partner SpePharm AG will distribute LYMPHOSEEK; to present at two investor conf.'s

NASDAQ
(NASDAQ:MHGC) Morgans Hotel Group Co. $2.02 Wk-H: $2.25
- receives revised $2.75 per share takeover proposal and will adjourn special meeting of stockholders to evaluate - merger arb. play?
(NASDAQ:ACST) Acasti Pharma Inc. $1.60 Wk-H: $3.09
- reports positive CaPre omega-3 bridging study data, results support streamlined regulatory pathway for novel hypertriglyceridemia drug

NYSE
(NYSE:RLH) Red Lions Hotels Corp. (2015: $7.70) $7.80 Wk-H: $8.06
- nationwide with 113 hotels and 14,200 rooms, to buy Vantage Hospitality Group - scales up to 1,100+ franchise hotels with 73,000+ rooms
(NYSE:GIMO) Gigamon Inc. $48.58 Wk-H: $51.85
- provides active visibility to physical/virtual network traffic for stronger security/performance, launches innovative reseller incentive program

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Saturday, September 10, 2016

InvestorsGuru.com 10 Filtered Mid-Day Market Movers Recap

Mid-Day Market Movers focus on above average volume, price action, breakout chart trends and news - posted throughout the day live at the top of InvestorsGuru.com, on our Hot Sheet and @InvestorsGuru Twitter feed. Below recaps last week's movers, all prices when posted, week high price Wk-H:, with a brief company description and recent news headlines. Submit any ticker symbol to our Detailed Quote Portal (top-left of all pages) for quotes, java charts, research and news, where you can also login with any major social account to post updates, comments, and share your own best ideas about any stock.

TSX Venture (quote V. and ticker symbol)
(TSXV:SIL)(OTCBB:SVCMF) Silvercrest Metals Inc. Mar.2 $0.26 $0.90 $3.08 $3.73 Wk-H: $4.09
- exploring Mexico's historic precious metal dist.'s, discovers unmined William Tell vein ext.; Las Chipas multiple high grade 2,500+ gpt AgEq
(TSXV:CHN)(OTCBB:CHNUF) China Education Resources Inc. (2015: $0.05) $0.22 Wk-H: $0.29
- edu-tech for online learning, training and social media for teachers, students, professionals, Q2 made $1,043,647 net profit
(TSXV:WKG)(OTCBB:ERRCF) WestKam Gold Corp. Jun.11 $0.06 $0.075 $0.045 Wk-H: $0.05
- developing its Bonaparte Gold Project, steady progress on 10,000t bulk sample going to (TSX:K)(NYSE:KGC) Kinross mill, last 2 avg. 26.5 & 16.28 g/t

TSX (quote T. and ticker symbol)
(TSX:BU)(NASDAQ:BUR) Burcon Nutrascience Corp. $3.26 Wk-H: $3.65
- develops valuable plant-based proteins, board elections; first large-scale CLARISOY production facility scheduled to be commissioned in Q4

NYSE MKT AMEX
(AMEX:GORO) Gold Resource Corp. (2014: $5.73) $6.45 Wk-H: $6.60
- high-grade gold/silver in Oaxaca Mexico and Nevada, monthly dividend; Switchback: 8.19m 9.07g/t-Au and 7.96m 6.90g/t-Au, 618g/t-Ag
(AMEX:PZG) Paramount Gold Nevada Corp. (2013: $2.17)(2014: $1.03)(2015: $1.20) $2.10 Wk-H: $2.23
- advanced gold projects in Nevada: Sleeper, & Oregon: Grassy Mountain, Aug. 30 starts pre-feasibility study at recently acquired Grassy Mtn.
(AMEX:MSTX) Mast Therapeutics Inc. (2014: $0.58 $0.84) $0.42 $0.65 Wk-H: $0.71
- focused on sickle cell disease and heart failure, Sept. 13 to present at global investment conference; joins new sickle cell disease coalition
(AMEX:NAVB) Navidea Biopharmaceuticals Inc. (2013: $1.65 $2.15)(2014: $1.44)(2015: $2.00) $0.60 Wk-H: $1.10
- precision diagnostic radiopharmaceuticals, held investor call: up to $310M LOI (NYSE:CAH) Cardinal Health to sell Lymphoseek in N. America

NYSE
(NYSE:CHK) Chesapeake Energy Corp. Feb.24 $2.66 $5.49 $6.85 Wk-H: $7.81
- second-largest U.S. natural gas producer, Aug. 26 increases size of cash tender offers for contingent convertible senior notes
(NYSE:EXK)(TSX:EDR) Endeavour Silver Corp. Feb.8 $1.54 $3.67 $5.52 Wk-H: $5.71
- three silver-gold mines in Mexico, Aug. 3 Q2 $5.37/oz. cash costs -38%, $10.53/oz. AISC -38%, raised $30.8M, $56.8M cash +178%

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Please note that nothing in this report should be taken as a recommendation in any way, and that everything from InvestorsGuru.com is subject to the terms of our Privacy Policy and Disclaimer.