Thursday, February 7, 2013

InvestorsGuru.com Breakout Small-Caps: BBRY BlackBerry, SUTR Sutor Technology, AUMN Golden Minerals, tsxv: GXY Galaxy Graphite, ZEN Zenyatta Ventures, AMW Alpha Minerals

Guru Trader Tweet of 6 Notable Market Movers - High Volume, Price Action & News:

NASDAQ:
BBRY BlackBerry $16.43 +$0.38 40m - VA,
SUTR Sutor Technology Group $1.39 +$0.38 747k - %G|YH,

AMEX:
AUMN Golden Minerals Co $3.43 +$0.22 1m - VA|%G|$G,

TSXV:
GXY Galaxy Graphite Corp $0.09 +$0.06 6.3m - VA|%G,
ZEN Zenyatta Ventures Ltd $1.46 +$0.19 1.9m - VA|$G|NH,
AMW Alpha Minerals Inc $2.40 +$0.25 640K - $G|NH,

Top 10: VA Volume Active, %G Percent Gainer or $G Dollar Gainer. YH 52-Week High, NH 10-Year New High, FT@ First Tweeted at price (within a year +/-) - verify or follow live at twitter.com/InvestorsGuru or subscribe to blog.InvestorsGuru.com

Recent News Headlines
- Feb 7/6, (NASDAQ: BBRY)(TSX: BB) BlackBerry - Announces two new board directors; best first day launch by 50% in Canada, by three times in the UK
- Feb 07, (NASDAQ: SUTR) Sutor Technology - China-based man./dist. of high-end fine finished steel products reports Q2 net income +71.4%, revenues +46.3%
- Jan 25/17, (AMEX: AUMN)(TSX: AUM) Golden Minerals - Reports Possible Extensions Of Mineralized Zones At El Quevar, Salta, Argentina; Q4 2012 Production
- Feb 07, (TSXV: GXY) Galaxy Graphite - Discovers High Grade, Large Flake Graphite on Buckingham Project, Quebec
- Feb 05, (TSXV: ZEN) Zenyatta Ventures - Ultra-High Purity of 99.96% Carbon Yielded from Second Series of Tests on Albany Graphite Samples
- Feb 07, (TSXV: AMW) Alpha Minerals - First Drill Holes for Winter Drill Program at PLS Intersect 21m and 37m of Near Surface Uranium Mineralization

We filter today's market movers, then focus on 5 or more small-cap stocks with seemingly positive news and/or technical chart momentum, while excluding one-day-only events such as a buyout. Click symbols above, or Submit any symbol to our Detailed Quote Portal at InvestorsGuru.com, for its stock quote, chart, news, research and to view/post/share comments at any ticker's bulletin board. Sign-up for our Small Cap Stock Observer Newsletter, Featured Stock Profiles & News by Email, and to setup your own My Portfolio, My Watchlist & Alerts and email preferences. Free!

Wednesday, February 6, 2013

InvestorsGuru.com Breakout Small-Caps: BIOL Biolase, IMUC ImmunoCellular Thera, ZNGA Zynga, PAL N.A. Palladium, tsx/v: EMC Metals, MRN Marengo Mining, PCY Prophecy Coal, MMT Mart Res., CGT Columbus Gold, ETR Eacom Timber

Guru Trader Tweet of 10 Notable Market Movers - High Volume, Price Action & News:

NASDAQ:
BIOL Biolase Inc $3.37 +$0.54 2.9m - %G|YH|FT@ $2.22,
IMUC ImmunoCellular Therapeutics $2.73 +$0.29 2.2m - VA|%G|$G|FT@ $2.45,
ZNGA Zynga Inc. $2.97 +$0.23 90m - VA|FT@ $8.21,

AMEX:
PAL North American Palladium $1.90 -$0.12 5m - VA|%G,

TSX:
EMC EMC Metals Corp $0.08 +$0.045 6.4m - VA|%G,
MRN Marengo Mining $0.165 +$0.02 3.9m - %G,
PCY Prophecy Coal Corp $0.15 +$0.02 1m - %G,

TSXV:
MMT Mart Resources Inc $2.00 +$0.03 2.1m - VA|NH|FT@ $0.68,
CGT Columbus Gold Corp $0.385 +$0.02 .3m - ?,
ETR Eacom Timber Corp $0.26 +$0.015 1.9m - VA,

Top 10: VA Volume Active, %G Percent Gainer or $G Dollar Gainer. YH 52-Week High, NH 10-Year New High, FT@ First Tweeted at price (within a year +/-) - verify or follow live at twitter.com/InvestorsGuru or subscribe to blog.InvestorsGuru.com

Recent News Headlines

- Feb 06, (NASDAQ: BIOL) BIOLASE Receives FDA Clearance for Its 940nm Diolase 10(TM) Diode Soft Tissue Laser for a Broad Spectrum of Medical Procedures
- Feb 04, (NASDAQ: IMUC) ImmunoCellular Therapeutics to Present at BIO CEO & Investor Conference on February 11th
- Feb 05, (NASDAQ: ZNGA) Zynga Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2012 Financial Results
- Feb 06, (AMEX: PAL) North American Palladium to Host Year End 2012 Results Conference Call and Webcast on February 22
- Jan 31, (AMEX: PAL) North American Palladium Reports Excellent Exploration Results from the Second Half of 2012 Drilling at Lac Des Iles
- Feb 06, (TSX: EMC) EMC Settles Dispute with Jervois, Now Controls 100% of Nyngan Scandium Project in Australia
- Feb 06, (TSX: MRN) Yandera Copper-Molybdenum-Gold Project EPC pricing received from China's NFC, Feasibility Study update and interim funding arrangement
- Feb 06, (TSX: PCY) Prophecy Receives Non-Binding Financing Indicative Term Sheet and LOI; (re: Chandgana Tal power plant project in Khentii Province Mongolia)
- Jan 09, (TSXV: MMT) Mart Resources Inc UMU-10 Well Update: Initial Flow Test Results 1,943 bopd; four more tests remain to be done
- Feb 05, (TSXV: CGT) Columbus Gold Announces 5.37 Million Ounce Inferred Gold Resource at Paul Isnard
- Nov-Jan (TSXV: ETR) forms special committee for strategic review; board approves USNR rebuild of Timmins mill, completes Elk Lake upgrades; Q3 financial results

We filter today's market movers, then focus on 5 or more small-cap stocks with seemingly positive news and/or technical chart momentum, while excluding one-day-only events such as a buyout. Click symbols above, or Submit any symbol to our Detailed Quote Portal at InvestorsGuru.com, for its stock quote, chart, news, research and to view/post/share comments at any ticker's bulletin board. Sign-up for our Small Cap Stock Observer Newsletter, Featured Stock Profiles & News by Email, and to setup your own My Portfolio, My Watchlist & Alerts and email preferences. Free!

Monday, February 4, 2013

Ready, Set, Go-ld Vs. Mining Shares; Uranium Poker & Russia's Tell - InvestorsGuru.com

Gold is the benchmark for metals prices. Gold soared for most of the past decade from around $260/oz. in 2001 to a high of over $1,900/oz. in the fall of 2011. Over this time there were minor corrections every 30-months or so, lasting for a few months before gold trended higher again.

Late summer 2011 gold at $1,923/oz. seemed over-extended and due for another correction—and did. Gold prices pulled back to as low as $1,528/oz. by May 2012, settling at around $1600/oz. or -15% which is not unusual. What does seem unusual is that instead of gold prices correcting for only a few months, this time it has been around 16-months with gold remaining flat at around $1,670/oz. today.

Our September newsletter asked if our chart below indicates that gold and silver is set to rally.


Gold prices did bump-up close to $1,800/oz., and silver to $35/oz. the next month—October. However gold has since settled back into the saddle, range-bound again between $1,600-$1,800/oz. Unless you were an extremely nimble trader, I'd call this more of a false start than a tradable fall rally.

Some technicians may see the above patterns more as Bullish Descending Wedges that can last months, rather than Pendants which generally last a few weeks. If so, a break below gold's $1,600/oz. base might signal a Bearish Reversal, whereas a break above gold's upper $1,800/oz. resistance level might signal a Bullish Continuation—like it did in 2006 and 2008. Whichever way gold moves to eventually break from its pattern could be dramatic—typically wider bases mean bigger moves.

Gold's main fundamental driver continues to be the Debase-Race between the Dollar and the Euro, which shows no signs of letting up anytime soon. Gold bulls might also take comfort in Japan's recent announcement of it's lacing-up to lower the value of the Yen, towards stimulating its own economy.

Will Sleeping Dogs Bark In 2013?

We have mentioned several times how mining shares in general have uncharacteristically under-performed during this metals bull-market. In other words you could have seen better returns by passively holding bullion, or their ETFs, rather than most mining shares.

It's hard to argue with gold returns of around 500%+, or 40%+ annualized, over the last decade. But what's good for gold has always been good for gold mining shares as well. So why not this bull run—is it different this time? Maybe they just haven't broken out yet! You need to weigh your reasoning.

Some believe that scandals like Bre-X Minerals in the 1990's have kept investors away from mining shares. But this is nothing new and affects many industries; names like Enron, Worldcom and Lehman come to mind. Mining markets have always recovered as metals prices cycle higher again.

Bullion ETFs SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) and iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV) didn't exist during past secular metals bull-markets. ETFs compete for investor attention and may have liquidity advantages; however bullion, precious metals coins and their certificates have been around forever.

Others point to higher exploration, development and production costs for mining companies. This directly affects profitability and share returns, but does not explain why some of the largest gold companies have never been cheaper—with near-record profits and gold prices.

I could see gold producers P/Es and share prices being constrained somewhat if the overall market was cheaper, but this doesn't even seem to be the case. Here are some major North American indices trailing 12-month P/E ratios: Dow Industrial 15.37, Dow Transportation 18.47, Dow Utility 21.94, Nasdaq-100 16.64, S&P-500 17.92, S&P/TSX Composite 25.60, Russell-2000 31.24.

While most of these major indices don't seem overly expensive, instead of being cheap compared to major miners they actually seem relatively expensive. Here are the trailing P/Es of some of the major gold and other metals producers: Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX)(TSX: ABX) 9.50, AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE: AU) 12.10, Gold Fields Ltd. (NYSE: GFI) 9.60, Harmony Gold Mining (NYSE: HMY) 8.20, IAMGOLD Corp. (NYSE: IAG)(TSX: IMG) 8.10, Compania de Minas Buenaventura S.A. (NYSE: BVN) 8.60, Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (NYSE: FCX) 11.10, BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) 13.60 (world's largest mining company).

So maybe the problem is the future outlook of gold prices? I don't think so; most analysts see record-high gold prices in 2013 or over the next few years. It's hard to believe—with gold prices now over $1,600/oz.—that the S&P/TSX Venture Index was cut in half over the past two-years. The ^TSXV is now at the same level it was back in 2002—when gold prices were around $300/oz.

Conclusion: When rational investors find value, the market tends to recognize this... eventually! After an extended correction, institutions must be eyeing extremely low valuations of gold producers for the turn. But value alone may not be enough for them to act now; they probably want to see gold break solidly above its technical $1,800/oz. resistance level. If, as I believe, this catalyst sparks a major producers rally this year, this usually spills over quickly and gets the juniors barking as well.

Uranium Poker & Russia's Tell

With uranium, investors often have to dig more than usual and even read between the lines in order to get information. This can involve piecing together what utilities and uranium companies are doing, to figuring out what governments might really be planning to do. It's like a game of Texas Hold'em!

For example, it's not uncommon for utilities to sign off-take agreements with uranium producers on undisclosed terms. How can you assess the value of a deal to a uranium company when you might not know the purchase price, quantity, or other key terms—to even the name of the utility?

Predicting what governments will actually do—versus what they say they'll do—can be confusing and costly to investors. Even if they intend to do what they say, will they even be around long enough to do it? Here's a few examples that have affected public perception and uranium's market values:

After Japan's record earthquake and tsunami in March 2011, and the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant accident, everyone questioned the safety of nuclear power. Facts such as reliable low-cost energy being produced from nuclear reactors since the 1950's, that the power plant was 40-years old and overdue for safety upgrades, and that not one of the 19,000 killed was by radiation, were ignored.

The Japanese government then shut down all of its reactors and promised to get out of nuclear power. This may be what the public wanted to hear at the time, but didn't anticipate their reaction to higher energy costs and rolling blackouts. Two reactors are already back online and Japan just elected a pro-nuclear government thus this process should accelerate. World-Nuclear.org shows that in addition to Japan's 50 operable reactors, it has 3 under construction, 10 planned and 3 more proposed.

Other nations like Germany shut down reactors and promised to get out of nuclear power. This seems strange considering that Germany didn't have a nuclear accident, is not earthquake prone and doesn't have much shoreline for tsunamis to strike. However, just as Japan should have realized that nuclear power is not the real problem, Germany is now dealing with high power rates and blackouts. More energy is being imported from France—the world's largest exporter of electricity—that gets around 80% of its needs from nuclear power. It will be interesting to see how the German's react at the polls this year when realizing that they are consuming French nuclear power—instead of their own.

It was not surprising to see uranium and uranium stocks fall after Fukushima. However the extent of the fall and how long it has lasted seems unjustified. But again, even when you believe a company, industry, or a commodity is deeply undervalued, a catalyst is often needed to spark a rally.

Uranium's Next Catalyst—Pick Any Playable Starting Hand:

AKs - Many uranium-mining projects worldwide are not economical at current prices. Either the price of uranium has to go up soon, or mines will keep closing. Most of the largest uranium developments that have been deferred recently will remain that way until uranium prices double.

JJ - The growth fundamentals for nuclear power and uranium demand have never looked better. There are more nuclear reactors planned now than even before Fukushima. Globally there are 435 reactors now operable with 167 planned and 317 more proposed.

QQ - Valuations must be low—the big players seem to be positioning for higher uranium prices. For example, China has been stockpiling in preparation for its new reactors. While most juniors are scrambling to raise or preserve cash, major producers and utilities are still spending. Paladin Energy (TSX: PDN) just received the final tranche of a $200M prepayment for a long-term supply contract with √Člectricit√© de France (world's largest nuclear utility). Cameco Corp. (NYSE: CCJ)(TSX: CCO) just completed buying uranium trader NUKEM Energy, plus $430M for Yeelirrie in Australia.

KK - Increased M&A activity recently may be signalling a bottom. The hot uranium market prior to Fukushima saw 7-transactions over 4-years, versus 9-transactions over the last 2-years. Our past newsletters discussed the CA$654M takeover battle between Cameco and Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) for Hathor Exploration. Just last month Denison Mines (TSX: DML)(AMEX: DNN) announced its intention to buy Fission Energy (TSXV: FIS), and Uranium One Inc. (TSX: UUU) agreed to go private via a buyout by its Russian majority shareholder ARMZ.

AA - The global uranium supply deficit will get worse. Excess supply from Japan and others after Fukushima is drying up. The world mines 140Mlbs. but consumes 180Mlbs. annually. Most of this deficit has been filled for years by converting HEU from Russian nuclear warheads to LEU fuel. The Megatons to Megawatts program is scheduled to end this year, removing around 25Mlbs. annually.

Wildcards - With Japan's pro-nuclear government winning by a landslide, how quickly will it's large operable fleet of reactors be put back online, and planned reactors built? How will Germany vote this year? Will the public's perception of nuclear power improve there and elsewhere, as a result of using more coal and other dirty fuels, higher energy rates, and blackouts?

Now Let's Play Some Poker!

Think about the AA and KK scenarios. Russia's state-owned JSC Atomredmetzoloto (ARMZ) is taking Uranium One Inc. private by buying the other half it doesn't already own. My read is that if they felt that uranium prices might head even lower, why not just wait—they already own a controlling interest, making it unlikely someone else would make a move? Why now?

How much is uranium's $44lb. spot, or even $60lb. long-term price, factoring in the world's increasing supply deficit after the Megatons to Megawatts HEU program ends in November? Perhaps the market thinks this is just a bluff to talk up uranium prices—that the program could simply be extended—not unlike OPEC talking up oil prices with threatened cuts, followed by no real supply changes.

All indications are that the HEU program will end this year. Russian nuclear power is expanding, with 10 reactors now under construction to be online within 3-years, with 28 more reactors planned. Even if they could extend the HEU program, they likely need to hold-on to these uranium supplies. Actions speak louder than words and perhaps the Uranium One buyout and other purchases are Russia's tell.

Uranium Mining Companies

Many analysts are bullish again on the uranium space and see a new renaissance underway. Our website's homepage and Reports tab Contributed Content section post interesting articles daily on a variety of resource companies. Last week Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Rob Chang was interviewed in The Energy Report posted under the title: Is 2013 a Catalyst Year for the Uranium Market?, where he identifies 16 uranium companies on the verge of big breakthroughs, including a few takeover candidates.

Nuclear power continues to be the practical solution for a growing world that needs abundant, reliable, low-cost and environmentally safe energy. We've been writing about its advantages and the fundamental long-term growth prospects of uranium and uranium mining companies for two-years. For more on 11 uranium companies we follow, read the January 22, 2013 InvestorsGuru.com interview in The Energy Report by Streetwise Reports—also posted at our website under the title: Uranium: Energy Solution and Risk-On Opportunity.

Sign-up at InvestorsGuru.com (or blog.InvestorsGuru.com) for our Small Cap Stock Observer newsletter, and to set-up your own My Portfolio, My Watchlist & Alerts and News by Email preferences, or quote and comment at our AnyTicker.com Bulletin Boards. Free!

Please note that nothing in this report should be taken as a recommendation in any way, and that everything from InvestorsGuru.com is subject to the terms of our Privacy Policy and Disclaimer.